Robot Population Projection: Production Parity with Humans 2040-2055

508px-cartoon_robot-svg

For my novel “A home for robots or-else artilect war“, I need to come up with some a realistic timeline of when such a worldwide conflict could occur.

Intuitively it would seem to be around the time when there are as many or more robots than homo sapiens on the planet, at which point there may be enough sufficiently intelligent robots to demand a space for themselves. Though historically Haiti is one of the few places where the slaves managed to free themselves, and they had a slave to free ratio of closer to 10:1 similar to ancient Greece.

According to World Counts there are roughly 350 thousand homo-sapien babies born a day,  or a 130 million a year, the growth rate is around 1%.   According to International Federation of Robotics  (IFR) there were about 5 million robots produced in 2014 (when combining service and industrial robots), the growth rate is  around 15%.

Using a compound interest calculator and presuming rates stay relatively constant can figure out that in around 25 years (2040) parity will be reached — the number of robots and humans being produced per year will be the same.   However while homo-sapiens live on average 70 years according to World Fact Book,  robots have a life expectancy closer to 10 years, so would need to produce about 7 times more robots per year in order to have the same number as humans which will be reached in the early 2050’s.  If however there is no assistance from humans fighitng for the entitlements of robots, and the robots are forced to revolt by themselves, likely they would do so when outnumbering humans 10 to 1,  which would (assuming trends continue) be in 55 years, or around 2070.

So the most likely time-frame for an artilect war style conflict would be between 2040 and 2055.  According to Ray Kurzweil’s predictions by 2033 a lower estimate of human brain power will be purchasable for $1000 (1995-adjusted) dollars, so by 2030 most computer software developers will be able to experiment with AGI (Artificial General Intelligence),  so I think the 2030’s  will be a major decade for AGI development.  The AGI brains should be fairly mature or at least stable by the 2040’s.

What else will be happening around 2040?  The global temperature will likely have raised by at least 1C,  which translates to at least 2C in cooler countries like Canada — so Toronto will be subtropical with average winter month temperatures above -3C.

However while global warming may be moving our temperatures up over the century, in the 2030’s solar-activity may be down creating a mini ice age with a possible worldwide recession or depression, this would further set things up similar to conditions preceding WW2,  which would allow some relatively totalitarian regimes to point the finger and start wars to distract the populace.  Looking at current world configuration it would appear that Russia would be the most likely to be this future instigator, due to it’s current near totalitarian and rather aggressive regime, combined with the likelihood that it would be severely affected by a mini-ice-age — motivating more aggressive land grabs. At the moment Russia is implicated in land grabs within Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.

For these future battles, we may expect more military grade robots, This may add more fuel to a global war fire that may ignite in the 2040’s or 50’s. In 2014, around 11,000 military robots were produced according to IFR — though numbers may be higher for classified robots,  with a growth rate around 13%, we could expect at least 230 thousand military robots being produced a year in 2040, and by 2053 there may be nearly a million produced each year,  by comparison the American Military has half a million active personnel, and about a million in total.

While currently the most common type are unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs),  unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) and remotely operated underwater vehicles (ROVs) are growing in number, allowing for “full spectrum dominance“.  The great irony being that it is humans attempting to achieve dominance over other humans, by using machine servants.  If the servants decide not to destroy each other, but rather to work together, could be an interesting step toward world government.

For the purposes of the book, during the war we may see a lifting of the veil, where an extra-terrestrial species such as the Greys join the libre allies in act 3, after things look bleak and hopeless for libre homo-sapiens in act 2. After the war we will likely have a world government, allowing more co-operative focus on sustainability and interest in extra-planetary colonization.  This would open the stage for later cosmist books about robots on other planets,  will have to do projection calculations based on number of space probes, satellites and landers

If you are interested in reading it when it comes out can follow my book on inkshares.

—-
Update,  I’ve made a little script to more accurately model the robot population, presuming a life-expectancy that increases by 3 months each year.

/* robotPopulationEstimte.js                                                     
simple population modeling script for robots                                     
by Logan Streondj CC-BY-SA */                                                             
                                                                                 
"use strict";                                                                    
var years = 42,                                                                  
    year = 0,                                                                    
    bornPopulation = 5,                                                          
    numberBorn = 0,                                                              
    numberDied = 0,                                                              
    growthRate = 0.15,                                                           
    currentPopulation = bornPopulation + 5,                                      
    lifeExpectancy = 10;                                                         
                                                                                 
for (year = 1; year < years; year ++) {                                          
    /* compound interest is principal(1+rate)^time */                            
    numberBorn = bornPopulation * Math.pow((1 + growthRate),year);               
    currentPopulation += numberBorn;                                             
    lifeExpectancy += 0.25;                                                      
    numberDied = bornPopulation *                                                
        Math.pow((1+growthRate), year - lifeExpectancy);                         
    currentPopulation -= numberDied;                                             
    console.log("year " + (2014 + year) +                                        
        ", life expectancy: " + (lifeExpectancy | 0) +                           
        " years, born: " + (numberBorn | 0) +                                    
        " million, died: " + (numberDied | 0) +                                  
        " million, population: " +                                               
        (currentPopulation | 0) + " million ");                                  
}                                                                             
                                                                

Feel free to edit it in order to improve accuracy,
though please share the updates so we can all benefit.

16:42:22 elspru@odroid:~/Desktop/0/5/story/ArtilectWar$ js robotPopulationEstimate.js
year 2015, life expectancy: 10 years, born: 5 million, died: 1 million, population: 14 million
year 2016, life expectancy: 10 years, born: 6 million, died: 1 million, population: 19 million
year 2017, life expectancy: 10 years, born: 7 million, died: 1 million, population: 25 million
year 2018, life expectancy: 11 years, born: 8 million, died: 1 million, population: 32 million
year 2019, life expectancy: 11 years, born: 10 million, died: 2 million, population: 40 million
year 2020, life expectancy: 11 years, born: 11 million, died: 2 million, population: 49 million
year 2021, life expectancy: 11 years, born: 13 million, died: 2 million, population: 60 million
year 2022, life expectancy: 12 years, born: 15 million, died: 2 million, population: 72 million
year 2023, life expectancy: 12 years, born: 17 million, died: 3 million, population: 87 million
year 2024, life expectancy: 12 years, born: 20 million, died: 3 million, population: 103 million
year 2025, life expectancy: 12 years, born: 23 million, died: 3 million, population: 123 million
year 2026, life expectancy: 13 years, born: 26 million, died: 4 million, population: 145 million
year 2027, life expectancy: 13 years, born: 30 million, died: 4 million, population: 171 million
year 2028, life expectancy: 13 years, born: 35 million, died: 5 million, population: 201 million
year 2029, life expectancy: 13 years, born: 40 million, died: 5 million, population: 236 million
year 2030, life expectancy: 14 years, born: 46 million, died: 6 million, population: 276 million
year 2031, life expectancy: 14 years, born: 53 million, died: 7 million, population: 322 million
year 2032, life expectancy: 14 years, born: 61 million, died: 8 million, population: 376 million
year 2033, life expectancy: 14 years, born: 71 million, died: 9 million, population: 438 million
year 2034, life expectancy: 15 years, born: 81 million, died: 10 million, population: 510 million
year 2035, life expectancy: 15 years, born: 94 million, died: 11 million, population: 593 million
year 2036, life expectancy: 15 years, born: 108 million, died: 12 million, population: 689 million
year 2037, life expectancy: 15 years, born: 124 million, died: 13 million, population: 799 million
year 2038, life expectancy: 16 years, born: 143 million, died: 15 million, population: 927 million
year 2039, life expectancy: 16 years, born: 164 million, died: 16 million, population: 1075 million
year 2040, life expectancy: 16 years, born: 189 million, died: 18 million, population: 1245 million
year 2041, life expectancy: 16 years, born: 217 million, died: 20 million, population: 1442 million
year 2042, life expectancy: 17 years, born: 250 million, died: 23 million, population: 1669 million
year 2043, life expectancy: 17 years, born: 287 million, died: 25 million, population: 1931 million
year 2044, life expectancy: 17 years, born: 331 million, died: 28 million, population: 2233 million
year 2045, life expectancy: 17 years, born: 380 million, died: 31 million, population: 2582 million
year 2046, life expectancy: 18 years, born: 437 million, died: 35 million, population: 2985 million
year 2047, life expectancy: 18 years, born: 503 million, died: 39 million, population: 3449 million
year 2048, life expectancy: 18 years, born: 579 million, died: 43 million, population: 3984 million
year 2049, life expectancy: 18 years, born: 665 million, died: 48 million, population: 4602 million
year 2050, life expectancy: 19 years, born: 765 million, died: 53 million, population: 5314 million
year 2051, life expectancy: 19 years, born: 880 million, died: 59 million, population: 6135 million
year 2052, life expectancy: 19 years, born: 1012 million, died: 66 million, population: 7081 million
year 2053, life expectancy: 19 years, born: 1164 million, died: 73 million, population: 8172 million
year 2054, life expectancy: 20 years, born: 1339 million, died: 81 million, population: 9429 million
year 2055, life expectancy: 20 years, born: 1540 million, died: 90 million, population: 10879 million

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7 thoughts on “Robot Population Projection: Production Parity with Humans 2040-2055

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  5. I suggest that robots *already” outnumber humans. After all, even a simple washing machine is a robot. Not a very sophisticated one, but a robot still.

    Any “fire and forget” missile is a robot; one that violates Asimov’s Laws, too.

    Got a wind-up toy? It’s a robot. A simple one, but just as a single-celled amoeba is a life form, a simple single task machine is a robot.

    Like

    • By the accepted dictionary definition, a robot should be programmable,
      so machine and appliances are different. Also robots tend to be semi or fully autonamous, capable of doing things on their own.

      This robot population projection doesn’t include smart-phones, of which there are already billions, or computers.
      So there may certainly be computing-cloud-brains in the 2040’s and 2050’s which control various robots as avatars.

      The ideal I’m working towards is robots which could be programmable by a soul or spirit (dark energy/matter),
      so that can download past-life wisdom, and access other similar spiritual processing power.

      Like

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